You have two replacement options in front of you. Each comes with a brochure, a quote, and a confident salesperson. Before you weigh any of that, weigh the timing. Set both options against the same planning date so you can see when the next replacement is likely to fall due. This walk-through shows how.
Start with the install year of the system you have now. Find that year on the data plate, the service record, or the paperwork from the last install. Then open the guide for that system and read what its typical service life means for your house. That gives you a planning date for the old system. A planning date is a window to plan within. It is not a forecast for your unit.
Put each option on the same line. Read the guide for each option. For a heat pump, the typical service life is on the Heat Pump page. For a gas furnace, it is on the Gas Furnace page. Write each planning date next to the install date the installer proposes. Now you can compare the dates without the sales language.
Compare the whole job, not just the box. A heat pump handles heating and cooling with one outdoor and one indoor unit. A gas furnace handles heat only, so the cooling side is a separate question. If one quote replaces heating and the other replaces heating and cooling, the quotes are not the same job. Ask each installer to describe the full scope in writing.
Ask each seller what the quote leaves out. Look for removal of the old equipment, any electrical or gas work, permits, thermostat changes, and the start date of any warranty on the new equipment. A line that is missing is not the same as a line that is included at no added charge. Ask which it is.
Judge the timing last. If one option gives you a later planning date, ask whether you want the next replacement to land in a season you can plan for. A replacement you schedule is easier to arrange than one forced on a bad week.
Neither option is the better pick by default. The better pick is the one whose dates, scope, and paperwork you can read clearly before you sign.